India and Australia could once again meet in the final of an ICC tournament. After losing to Australia in the Wellington Test, New Zealand has reached number two in the World Test Championship (WTC) points table. This puts Team India in the first position. Australia is in third place.
India now has to play two series at home, where the team has lost no series in the past 12 years. On the other hand, Australia has not lost a series in New Zealand for 31 years. After playing against India and Sri Lanka, even winning a single series will increase the chances of reaching the final.
If the upcoming matches continue similarly, then the final of the WTC will be between Australia and India. The scheduled match falls within the calendar for June 2025. But before understanding all scenarios, let’s understand the points table.
India benefits from New Zealand’s loss.
A series of two Tests between Australia and New Zealand is being played in New Zealand. Australia won the first match in Wellington, pushing New Zealand to the second position. The team has achieved 60.00% points, while India is in the first position with 64.58% points. Australia is in third place with 59.09% points. By winning the last match of the series against New Zealand, the team can reach number 2.
More than 65% of the points are necessary
for the final.
In 2021, the ICC organized the first final of the WTC. Then New Zealand, with 70.00% points, and India, with 72.2% points, secured their place in the final. In 2023, the final was between Australia with. 66.67% points and India with 58.80% points.
This time also, only two teams will obtain more than 65% points after the completion of all series. Looking at the current situation, India and Australia seem to be in a position to reach the final, so the chances of a final between these two are higher.
India will play against New Zealand and
Bangladesh at home.
Team India is currently playing its first home Test series against England in the ongoing WTC. The team is ahead in the 5-match series by 3-1. By winning the last match, the team can strengthen its position at the top with 68.52% points.
Team India has achieved victory in 2 out of 4 tests against the West Indies and South Africa abroad, while one match has resulted in a draw and one match has ended in a defeat. Now India has to play a series of three Tests against New Zealand and two Tests against Bangladesh at home. With the team having won the last 17 series at home, there is hope of winning these two series as well.
If India wins both series at home, even after losing the 5-match series against Australia at the end of the year, it can still remain at the top. However, India has not lost a Test series against Australia for 10 years. The team has defeated the Kangaroos twice at their home and twice at their own home.
Australia has to face Sri Lanka and India.
Australia is currently playing its fourth series in the WTC. The team played a 5-match series against England abroad, which ended in a 2-2 draw.While at home, they defeated Pakistan and the West Indies. Now, by defeating New Zealand as well, the team has won 7 out of 11 matches. By winning the last match against New Zealand, they will reach number 2 with 62.5% points.
Australia will now play a series of five tests against India at home and two tests against Sri Lanka abroad. Australia has won 5 out of 8 series in Sri Lanka, with the last loss occurring in 2016. Therefore, the Kangaroos are the favorites to win. Additionally, the team seems stronger against India this time. By winning 4 out of the last 7 matches, they will also finish in the top 2.
Even by winning one of the remaining two series, Australia can secure a
place in the WTC final.
New Zealand’s path becomes difficult.
New Zealand, the winner of the first WTC title, now faces a hard path to reach the final. The team can reach the top by winning the last match against Australia with. 66.66% points. However, New Zealand last lost a test in Australia 31 years ago, in 1993. Thus, New Zealand’s challenges will increase.
New Zealand now has to play a series of three tests against England at home. However, England has won 10 out of 21 Test series in New Zealand. While New Zealand has won only three, the remaining eight series ended in draws. The team also has to play two series against Sri Lanka and India abroad. Winning in both conditions will be very difficult for the team because of the spinning conditions.
Host England’s path to playing in the
final remains difficult.
It is also difficult for host England to reach the final of the WTC this time. The team is currently playing its second home test series against India in the WTC cycle. The previous series against Australia ended in a 2-2 draw.While the team is trailing against India by 1-3, If they lose the last match, the team will have 17.5% points and will remain at number 8.
England now has to play two series at home against the West Indies and Sri Lanka. While playing two series abroad against Pakistan and New Zealand. The team will have to win all four series to reach the final.
The WTC awards 12 points for a win.
The World Test Championship started in 2019. The top nine teams playing Test cricket played six Test series over two years. 3 at home and 3 away against opposition teams. The final takes place between the top two teams that have obtained the highest percentage of points in the six-test series.
They held the first final in 2021 and the second in 2023. They have scheduled the third final to take place in 2025. Just like the first two finals, they have chosen England to host the title match this time too.
Teams receive 12 points for a win in the WTC. Teams in the WTC receive 12 points for a win, 6–6 points each for a tie, and 4–4 points each for a draw. A loss does not result in any points being awarded.
Australia is the defending champion, and
New Zealand won the first title.
Team India has made it to both WTC finals so far but has faced defeat on both occasions. In 2021, New Zealand won the final by 8 wickets. In 2023, Australia won the final by 209 runs. Now, once again, the final of the WTC could be between Australia and India.
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